Copper Ridge

DTC Growth Planner

Model scenarios, forecast revenue, and optimize media mix

Business growth

Test the next move

Compare shipping, discounts and prices against the same basket and reporting period.

Media planning calculators ↓

Crawl / Walk / Run readiness assessment

Self-assessment of operating readiness, not a revenue prediction. Stage does not change the math.

Inputs and assumptions

Enter a dated baseline or load the last 30 days of store sales. Empty fields mean unknown.

Qualification is an explicit estimate of orders above the threshold after discounts. AOV cannot establish that share. Order-volume change is your scenario assumption across all orders, not a measured conversion lift.

Scenario results

Contribution is before payment fees, marketing, overhead and tax. The same basket, merchandise cost and carrier cost per order are held constant. Price or basket changes can change demand; test that in order-volume change. Revenue share from repeat buyers is not a repeat-customer rate.

Shared plans

Save a scenario for your team and return to it after signing in again.

Unsaved draft

Connecting to shared plans…

Save or reopen a plan

Saved inputs and model assumptions
Save or open a plan to inspect its recorded inputs.

Plans are shared with people who already have access to this client and tool. Draft and Needs review are planning states; neither approves a budget nor launches campaigns.

Saved planning scenario
Review the saved allocation.
Copper Ridge Spirits · Evidence dated unavailable. This is a saved proposal, not an approved budget. Confirm current products, goals and source inputs before using it.

Saved scenario

Move money, not percentages. The total stays fixed and every change produces a gain-and-sacrifice receipt.

No trade made yet.Start from the saved scenario or move an exact amount to see what Copper Ridge Spirits gains and sacrifices.

Implementation levers

These choices become agency marching orders. Multi-select city and SKU fields with Command or Control.

Working scenario

Draft implementation plan

Needs review
This is a working scenario, not an approved budget or an approval record. Use Shared plans to save it with its inputs, owner, and review state.
💡
Opportunities
What am I leaving on the table?
📊
Stage Trajectory
How does my ceiling move as I mature?
⚖️
Scale Budget
How much can I scale with more spend?
🧩
Portfolio Mix
What should I be selling and how?
⚡
LTO Planner
How fast will my limited release sell?
🚚
Promo Lab
What does free shipping actually do to my margins?
📈
Growth Modeler
What happens if I invest more, or stay the course?
📅
Annual Plan
What does each month look like across the year?
🎯
Goal Planner
I have a target, solve for the spend.

No opportunities detected yet

More brand-specific evidence is needed before recommending an action. Scenario inputs remain planning assumptions unless a source is shown.

Stage Trajectory, How the Ceiling Moves

Three brands, three audiences, three curves on the same axes. The optimal point migrates right as you mature; ROAS softens; profit grows.

Walk · growth
Your stage's optimal monthly spend, peak profit, and breakeven, based on this brand's economics.
Optimal Monthly Spend
$0
where ∂profit/∂spend ≈ 0
Peak Profit
$0
contribution / mo
Breakeven Spend
$0
ROAS crosses 1.43×
ROAS @ Optimal
0×
peak efficiency
12M LTV Revenue
$0
incl. repeat cycle
What this means for you
·
·
Stage Trajectory · ROAS Across Spend
Crawl, Walk, Run · same axes ($250 → $25k) · optimal point dotted per stage
Optimal moves → right as audience widens
Peak ROAS softens → down as you pay for reach
Peak profit grows → up, the trade is worth it
Crawl · Optimal
·
, ROAS ·, profit
Walk · Optimal
·
, ROAS ·, profit
Run · Optimal
·
, ROAS ·, profit

Scale Simulator

Adjust inputs to model your revenue ceiling, and see what's holding you back.

Inputs

No paid campaign history exists yet. This scenario model starts with category planning assumptions, not Copper Ridge results.

$3,000
2
⚠️ Low creative count limits audience reach
3
$85
Category planning assumptions: CPM $11.45 · CTR 0.94% · Purchase rate 4.3% · Audience 450k
Copper Ridge margin input: 68%
Modeled Monthly Revenue
$14,200
at $3,000 media · 4.7× ROAS · 120 orders
⚠ Bottleneck Detected 2 creative variants is limiting your addressable reach. Adding 3+ variants typically increases ROAS by 15-22% at this spend level.
Conservative
$1,500/mo
$7,100
60 orders
4.7× ROAS
★ Recommended
$3,000/mo
$14,200
120 orders
4.7× ROAS
Aggressive
$6,000/mo
$24,800
210 orders
4.1× ROAS
💡 If you fix creative first Add 4 more creative variants (same budget) → projected revenue jumps to $17,200 · +21% unlocked without adding spend

Spend vs. Revenue & Contribution Profit

Full curve from $500 to $15k, your current budget highlighted. Drag the slider above to move the marker.

Revenue
Contribution Profit
Profit turns negative →
Current:, Peak profit:, Breakeven:,

Portfolio Optimizer

Toggle SKUs on/off to build your active mix · Discontinued SKUs are locked · Based on Shopify Feb 2025-Mar 2026

✓ Current Recommendation Lead with your highest-velocity in-stock SKU. Bundle a step-up pair to lift AOV. Clear slow inventory with a price drop. Plan the next limited release.

Bundle Recommendation

Pair your lead SKU with a step-up expression as a comparison bundle at a discount to the separate prices. Creates a natural entry point for new customers and moves slower inventory without discounting standalone.

Comparison Bundle
Modest bundle discount lifts AOV without eroding standalone price.

Active Mix Summary

4
Active SKUs
$321k
Plan Revenue
$228
Avg Unit Price
13yr
Lead SKU
💡 Mix insight With 15yr gone, 13yr is your new anchor. At $229/unit, it needs 2.2× more units to match 15yr's revenue, weight media spend here.

LTO Velocity Forecaster

Plan your limited release to maximize revenue without burning out your audience.

Release Details

180
$149
6,200
📊 Comparable release pattern
Prior premium drop
~45 bottles, $300 to $420 price tier, typically sells out in 2 to 3 weeks via email plus paid social.
Recommended Strategy
Drip Release
Release 60 bottles in 3 drops over 6 weeks · Builds urgency, maximizes price
$26,820
Total Revenue
42 days
Est. Sell-Through
Jun 2
Sold Out By
Email scenario Email demand is a planning scenario. Confirm this brand’s reachable list and observed conversion rate before choosing a release plan.

Compare Strategies

All three can work, we pre-selected Drip based on your list size and comparable release data.

💧 Drip Release Recommended
Release in 3-4 batches over 4-6 weeks. Creates FOMO with each drop, allows price to hold firm, and keeps your email list engaged across multiple touchpoints.
Revenue
$26,820
Sell-out
42 days
Audience Burn
Low
Risk
Low
💥 Single Drop
Release everything at once with a hard launch window (48-72 hrs). Maximizes immediate buzz but all-or-nothing, if the email doesn't land well, you're stuck with inventory.
Revenue
$26,820
Sell-out
3-7 days
Audience Burn
Medium
Risk
Medium
📋 Waitlist First
Open a waitlist 2-3 weeks before release. Sell to waitlist first, then release remainder publicly. Best for premium pricing and building CRM, but adds 3-4 weeks to timeline.
Revenue
$28,440+
Sell-out
55-65 days
Audience Burn
Very Low
Risk
Low

Shipping, price and promo scenarios

The shared growth calculator now shows baseline costs, shipping revenue forgone and every calculation.

Open growth scenarios ↑

Growth Modeler

Your status quo projected forward, then explore what scaling looks like. Real spend curve data, bourbon seasonality baked in.

archetype: spirits-dtc

12-Month Projection , Status Quo

Revenue bars · spend overlay · ROAS line (right axis) · seasonality-adjusted from May '26

Cumulative Revenue

Running total toward annual projection

Scenario Comparison

Annual revenue & profit across all tiers

$689
Est. 3-Year Customer Value
You're paying $32/customer to acquire someone worth $689 over 3 years. That's a 21× return on acquisition. Scaling spend increases CPA to $40-55, still a 12-17× return. Every incremental customer you acquire at these economics is building long-term portfolio value.

Monthly Detail

Annual Plan, 12-Month Spend Grid

Per-month spend, stage-aware presets, and a cumulative tracker. Toggle seasonality to see how peak months compound.

Set all months:
stage: Walk
Annual Spend
$0
Projected Revenue
$0
Total Orders
0
Contribution Profit
$0
12M LTV Revenue
$0
Plan readout
·
·

Cumulative Tracker

Running totals of orders + revenue across the 12 months, the area is revenue, the line is orders.

Goal Planner, Solve for Spend

Tell me your target; I'll back into the monthly spend distribution that gets you there.

Annual: I have a target, solve for monthly spend.
Solver readout
Set a target and click Solve.
In Annual mode I'll back into a monthly spend distribution that hits your goal, capped at your monthly budget ceiling. In Sellout mode I'll project month-by-month sellthrough until you hit zero inventory.

Annual Goal

Solved Avg Spend
·
Projected Revenue
·
Projected Orders
·
Hit Goal?
·

Copies the solved monthly spend distribution into the F3 Annual Plan grid.